ASIA FX: MYR & THB Outperform, Steadier Trends Elsewhere

South East Asia currencies have traded on a firmer footing compared to North Asia. The stand outs have been both MYR and THB both up around 0.25-0.30% versus the USD. PHP has been a laggard, although is away from worst levels versus the USD. 

• USD/MYR tracked lwoer at the open, with the pair holding sub 4.3600 for much of the session. BNM’s Deputy Governor said in interview yesterday that ‘there is no compelling reason or pressure on interest rates to move in either direction at this stage, though we have to be open to consider risks going forward.’ (source: Bloomberg TV). This appear to offer some support for MYR. On the data front, Industrial Production rose at 5.3% for July, up from 5% in June. Today’s data release is the seventh straight month of expansion for Malaysia.
• USD/THB is back to 33.85/90, finding some selling resistance near the 34.00 figure level.
• USD/PHP is close to unchanged, last near 56.45/50, which is off earlier highs (56.58).  Earlier data showed better than expected export growth (close to flat against a market projection of -3.2% y/y). Imports were stronger than forecast at 7.2% y/y, a positive sign for domestic demand, but also seeing a wider trade deficit near -$4.9bn (forecasts were at -$4.2bn). This is the widest deficit since March 2023, albeit marginally. This likely remains somewhat of a drag on relative PHP performance, off 2% YTD and comfortably the weakest performer in SEA FX. The outlook is better though, given the move lower in commodity prices.
• USD/IDR is little changed, last close to 15450.