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ASML One Of The Stronger TMT Curves in April Following Broadly Flat March

TECHNOLOGY


  • ASML bonds have been performing well WoW to sit as one of the better performing TMT curves in recent sessions, tightening 8-14bps vs. govies on the week. YTD spreads have tightened by over 30bps in places with G-spreads now at/below 50bps across the curve.
  • We note some ASML-relevant news stories in recent sessions though see the strong WoW performance as more likely a resumption of YTD tightening in the wake of Q4 results which revealed record high Q4 order intake despite delayed investments from key customers such as TSMC.
  • Earlier this week, US funding of USD 6.6bn was allocated to TSMC on their commitment to produce 2nm chips in Arizona, aligning with US efforts to localise semiconductor manufacturing. A significant portion of this revenue should flow to ASML in the coming years (BI analysts estimates see up to 20% of the USD 6.6bn, equivalent to close to 5% of ASML 2023). TSMC earlier today reported Q1 revenue +34% YoY, likely helping equity prices higher today.
  • Also noting reports last week that the US is seeking to block ASML from servicing China's chip equipment, planning talks with the Dutch gov’t aimed at curbing Beijing's tech capabilities amid security concerns. China accounts for ~30% of ASML revenue.

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