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AUD/JPY Off 4% From Cycle High Amid Signs of Life in the VIX

AUD
  • AUDJPY remains under considerable pressure, extending the current losing streak to five consecutive sessions - the longest losing streak since September last year. This puts the pullback from the June cycle high (itself a bearish harami candle pattern) at over 4%.
  • The pullback is now within range of key support at the 50-dma at 93.44 - last crossed in early May and looks partially corrective - unwinding the overbought condition that set in after the early June rally. Weakness through the 50-dma exposes 93.24 retracement support initially, ahead of 91.87, the 50% retracement of the recovery off the March low.
  • Over the past few years, the cross has been closely tied to risk/equity volatility and market turns (early March SVB crisis, Sept BoJ intervention) via the VIX Index, which has ticked higher from the post-COVID lows printed in late June. Further equity volatility gains could spell further weakness in AUD/JPY. This brings tomorrow's US CPI report and the late July BoJ decision into the spotlight ahead.
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