AUD/JPY Sub 100.00, As Metal Losses Continue, JPY TWI Rebound Continues

Safe haven gains again dominate the G10 FX space. USD/JPY fell to 152.23, but we sit slightly higher in latest dealings, last around 152.65, still around 0.80% strong in yen terms. The CHF is the only other major firmer against the USD, up 0.25% at this stage.

• The BBDXY USD is down slightly to 1256.1, largely owing to yen gains. Broader macro trends continue to support then yen, with negative equity trends weighing heavily on Asia Pac markets today. Fresh policy stimulus in terms of the 20bps MLF cut in China hasn't shifted the sentiment needle.
• Further weakness in metals prices, with copper and iron ore down around 1% each, has weighed on AUD/JPY, which has fallen below 100.00. Current levels are very close to the 200-day MA, around 99.83.
• AUD/USD is tracking to 0.6540, fresh lows back to the start of May and sub key support (0.6576). The continued metals falls have likely weighed on AUD/NZD, which is back to 1.1060. NZD/USD is lower, last near 0.5910/15, off 0.30%, compared with AUD's 0.60% fall.
• The general trend around softer core yields, with US yields weakening further at the front end has been another JPY support point.
• For USD/JPY we are oversold based off RSI (14), while the TWI is up 5% in the past month. However, on-going position adjustments may offset such technical stretch points. Recent CFTC data still suggested market positioning was some distance from neutral (after being aggressive short this year).
• USD/JPY's simple 200-day MA is around 151.5. The 200-day EMA (152.38) was tested earlier, but we haven't sustained the break at this stage.
• Later US Q2 GDP, jobless claims, June durable orders and German July Ifo survey print. Also ECB President Lagarde speaks.