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AUD/NZD Edges Higher, AU-NZ 2yr Swaps Reaches New Highs

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD edged slightly higher on Monday reaching a new monthly high of 1.0974 before closing up 0.15% at 1.0963.
  • AUD/NZD continues to hold onto gains made on the back of Australia's higher inflation reading last Wednesday, the market is currently pricing in a 45% chance of a rate hike by September for Australia, while pricing in a 16% chance of a cut in NZ which is driving the price moves.
  • Key levels to watch: Initial support lays at 1.0930 (June 28 lows) a break here would open a move to 1.0907 (post cpi low/ June 27 low) below here 1.0865-75 (20 & 50-day EMA). Resistance is 1.0974 (June 30 high), a break here would open a move to 1.100 (May 13 high)
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap hit multi-year highs on Monday of -45.5bps, and trades just off those levels at -49bps this morning, see chart (AUD/NZD vs 2yrSwap - BBG).

  • Expiries: No strikes today, upcoming strikes include 1.0800 ($600m) 1.0700 ($900m) for July 4th NY cut
  • Today, RBA Minutes of June Policy Meeting at 11:30 AEST
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