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AUD/NZD Edges Higher On Strong Employment Data

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD jumped higher on stronger-than-expected Jobs data on Thursday, closing the session up 0.43% to 1.1047 the highest level since July 31.
  • The cross has bullish momentum after breaking above 20, 50 & 100-day EMAs on Wednesday, the 14-Day RSI ticking back above 50, while the MACD is back to neutral. Initial support is at 1.0997 (20-day EMA), with 1.0978 (50-day EMA) & 1.0934 (100-day EMA) now seen as support, while resistance is now the pre AU CPI levels of 1.1090 (July 31)
  • RBA dated OIS is pricing a 11% chance of a cut in September, the market now sees just -22bps of cuts into-year end, down from 32bps of cuts priced in yesterday morning.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread is now at it's highest level since November 2020, jumping 17bps on Thursday to 7.5bps.
  • The cross has some large option expiries coming up with $1b call at 1.0950, $774m call at 1.115 expiring on Aug 15th NY Cut
  • Today the local calendar is empty

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