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AUD/NZD Holds Above Trendline Support

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD ended its run of 6 down sessions to close up 0.14% at 1.0915 and bounced right of support to keep the up trend in tact, although we were unable to the 100-day EMA resistance level.
  • Initial support remains the 200-day EMA & trend support of 1.0888, otherwise a move to 1.0800 (round number) and the June lows of 1.0733 become targets. While to the upside initial resistance is 1.0934 (100-day EMA) and above here 1.0965 area (20 & 50-day EMAs).
  • RBA dated OIS is pricing in just a 13% chance of a cut in the September meeting, although we have fully priced in a cut at the December meeting, with 29bps of cuts now priced in.
  • The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread dropped on Monday to -11.5bps from -6bps.
  • Expiries: 1.0700 ($504.68m) & 1.092 ($1.08b) for Aug 29th NY cut
  • Today the calendar is empty
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