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AUD/NZD Little Changed Ahead Of NZ CPI, 2y Swaps Continues To Edge Higher

NZD
  • The AUD/NZD made fresh highs again on Tuesday after hitting 1.1142 in early morning trading and levels last seen in October 2022. We sit slightly lower now, last around 1.1130. A firm uptrend in the pair persists, the cross trades well above all key EMA's with the 20-day EMA currently at 1.1010.
  • The October 2022 highs were 1.1207, which look to be the next resistance.
  • New Zealand will release CPI data shortly and looking at the OIS market we are currently sitting at a 56% chance of a interest rate cut in August, and a almost 80% chance in October, which is at odds with Australia where we are pricing in a 15% chance of a hike in August.
  • The cross continues to track the AU-NZ 2yr swap spread which has surged almost 40bps this month to -11bps, we hit a high of -8.5bps on Tuesday.
  • Expiries: no majors strikes today, upcoming notable strikes include; 1.100 ($454.55m) July 18th, 1.0850 ($498.85m) July 18th.
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