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AUD/USD Eyeing Earlier May Highs, Q1 Wages Out Today

AUD

AUD/USD was mostly on the front foot post the Asia close on Tuesday. We saw a brief dip to 0.6580 on the higher US headline PPI print, but we quickly rebounded. Highs were marked near 0.6630 and we track close to this level in early dealings today. AUD gained just under 0.30% for Tuesday's session, the third best performer in the G10 space.

  • The short term backdrop for AUD/USD remains bullish. Focus is on 0.6647, the May 3 high. On the downside the 20-day EMA is back near 0.6570, while the 50-day rests close to 0.6550.
  • US yields finished 4-5bps lower as the detail of the PPI print was seen as less threatening than the headline beat. US equity markets also rose in a positive risk on signal for the AUD. AUD/JPY continued to climb and we last track near 103.60/65.
  • The Australian Federal Government delivered the budget which showed an expected FY24 surplus of $9.3bn (0.3% GDP) but a $28.3bn (1% GDP) deficit in FY25. Q2 2024 inflation was revised down 0.25pp to 3.5% but Q2 2025 is unchanged at 2.75%.
  • Today we have Q1 wages as the main data focus point. It is forecast to print at 0.9% q/q and 4.2% y/y.
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