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AUDUSD Back Above 65c, RBA Decision Later

AUD

Risk-sensitive currencies underperformed on Monday as sentiment deteriorated sharply with growing US recession fears. AUDUSD fell to a low of 0.6350 but recovered to around 0.6450 soon afterwards. Solid US PMI/ISM data calmed concerns and the pair rose to around 0.6510. It finished down 0.2% to 0.6497 and is currently at 0.6505. The USD index fell 0.3%.

  • Monday saw AUDUSD break through key support at 0.6463, April 19 low, but it is again trading above this level. A clear break would reinforce a bearish theme and open 0.6339, 10 November 2023 low. Initial resistance is at 0.6534.
  • With the yen outperforming the G10, AUDJPY continued falling with the pair down 1.9% to 93.60 after an intraday low of 90.15, the lowest since mid-May 2023.
  • AUDNZD is 0.1% higher at 1.0944. AUDEUR is down 0.5% to 0.5935 while AUDGBP is up 0.1% to 0.5090.
  • Equities sold off but not as sharply as Asia with the S&P down 3%, Euro stoxx -1.5% and FTSE -2%. Oil prices were higher with WTI up 0.5% to $73.92/bbl and currently around $74.10. Copper fell 2.4% and iron ore is around $104/t.
  • Today the RBA decision is announced at 1430 AEST with Governor Bullock holding a press conference at 1530 AEST. It is widely expected to hold rates and so the statement and accompanying forecasts will be monitored closely for any change in thinking (see MNI RBA Preview). There are also July ANZ-Indeed job ads.
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