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AUSSIE BONDS: Holding Cheaper, MI Inflation Gauge Lower

AUSSIE BONDS
RegionGlobalBulletAPACFixed Income BulletsAustraliaMarkets

ACGBs (YM -5.0 & XM -3.0) are holding cheaper after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. 

  • The Melbourne Institute inflation showed that consumers expect inflation to slow to 4.0% over the next 12 months. Sept. consumer inflation expectations were at 4.4% and 4.8% this time last year.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session. The market’s focus has now turned to today’s CPI data. Core non-housing service CPI inflation is expected to ease modestly in September from the 0.33% in August, with seven analysts eyeing an average 0.27% M/M from a range of 0.20-0.34.
  • Weekly Jobless claims, a few more Fed speakers (Cook, Barkin, and Williams), and the re-opening of the 30Y Bond auction are also on tap.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +15bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 7bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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ACGBs (YM -5.0 & XM -3.0) are holding cheaper after dealing in narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. 

  • The Melbourne Institute inflation showed that consumers expect inflation to slow to 4.0% over the next 12 months. Sept. consumer inflation expectations were at 4.4% and 4.8% this time last year.
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer across benchmarks in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s heavy session. The market’s focus has now turned to today’s CPI data. Core non-housing service CPI inflation is expected to ease modestly in September from the 0.33% in August, with seven analysts eyeing an average 0.27% M/M from a range of 0.20-0.34.
  • Weekly Jobless claims, a few more Fed speakers (Cook, Barkin, and Williams), and the re-opening of the 30Y Bond auction are also on tap.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +15bps.
  • Swap rates are 3-4bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-4bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 7bps of easing is priced by year-end.