AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Richer But AU-US10Y Diff Near Top Of Range

ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +3.0) are slightly richer despite today’s home loans data printing stronger-than-expected. 

• Outside of the previously outlined Home Loan data, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
• Cash US tsys are ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session ahead of US Non-Farm Payrolls data later today.
• We will also hear from the FOMC's Williams, Goolsbee and Waller, who are anticipated to provide a final steer on the rate outlook going into the pre-September meeting blackout starting this weekend.
• Cash ACGBs are 3bps richer, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +18bps. At +18bps, the differential sits in the upper half of the +/-30bps range observed since November 2022.
• Swap rates are 2-3bps lower.
• Bills are flat to +3 across contracts, with the strip flatter.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-5bps softer across 2025 meetings after being 1-2bps firmer earlier. A cumulative 19bps of easing is priced by year-end.
• Next week, the local calendar is empty on Monday, ahead of Westpac Consumer and NAB Business Confidence on Tuesday.
• Next Wednesday, RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter will give a speech at the Barrenjoey Economic Forum alongside the AOFM's planned sale of A$1.0bn of 2.75% 21 November 2027 bond.