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Autumn Statement: Potential Market Movers (1/2)

UK
  • Consensus estimates for the remit revision are around a GBP15bln or so reduction to around GBP220bln (GBP220.0bln median / GBP222.1bln mean from the previews that we read).
  • Although the remit is based off CGNCR (the cash measure), we should get an idea earlier on based on the revisions to the PSNBex numbers the Chancellor will read out the size of the remit revision (although the accrual and cash measures don't always match up). This will likely move the market somewhat while the measures are set out.
  • When the remit is announced, some are expecting a more skewed reduction in long/linker issuance - if this isn't the case or if the remit is reduced by less than expected we could get some steepening of the curve. (Although there could be further changes later at 15:30GMT when the DMO's FQ4 consultation agenda is announced).
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