Axios-Gallant To US Def Sec: No Choice But To Retaliate To Iran Strike

Axios reporting that Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant told his US counterpart Lloyd Austin III that "Israel has no choice but to respond to the unprecedented missile and drone attack launched by Iran over the weekend".

• The expectation of an Israeli retaliation is not necessarily anything new, with reports from the 14 Apr war cabinet meeting statingthat "Israeli officials cited by Reuters said that the war cabinet favors a retaliation against Iran, but is divided over the timing and scale of any such response",
• CNN has reported that Israel is set to delay any mass military operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah as it mulls its options. The Netanyahu gov't appears committed to a Rafah operation, despite warnings from allies not to move into the densely-populated city.
• The prospect of regional escalation remains high. Of all the potential Iranian responses to the Damascus consulate strike, this weekend's drone/missile barrage sits somewhere towards the bottom end of the most-escalatory measures.
• Strikes by Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah or the Houthi rebels would have been less escalatory. However, targeting only military sites is not as likely to spark a regional war as would have been the case if Iran hit civilian centres.
• The Israeli response could come in the form of a direct attack on Iranian soil, potentially directed towards the country's nuclear programme. Cyberattacks on Iranian nuclear facilities have occurred in the past, but a direct missile attack would be a much more escalatory scenario.