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Back Near Lows of Week as Fed Enters Policy Blackout

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures remain weaker after the bell, near lows for the week. No data or obvious headline driver for the break lower, while NY Fed Williams monetary policy panel discussion didn't break any new ground ahead tonight's policy blackout that runs through August 1.
  • Williams said the central bank remains committed to its 2% inflation target, adding that the longer run trends affecting a low neutral rate in the U.S. are still in place.
  • Tsy Sep'24 10Y futures currently -13 at 110-26 vs. 110-25 low. Initial technical support at 110-15+ (20-day EMA) followed by 110-03 (50-day EMA) values.
  • While market depth may be thin, net volumes were strong for summer markets: TYU4 over 1.4M after the bell. Volumes surged on the back of news that cloud software provider CrowdStrike was having outages that affect Microsoft systems around the globe overnight. Headlines of workaround solutions having been filtering through the last couple hours.
  • Speculation over whether President Biden will pull out of his run for a second term continue. Opinions vary over how FI markets will react if Biden pulls out, from no reaction at all to a surge in yields depending on who fills the void. Debate over price action and curve moves were ongoing as markets game out rate cuts, taxes, tariffs, mass deportations, etc.
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