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Back Sub $100/ton Amid Higher Inventories & Property Concerns

IRON ORE

The active SGX iron ore contract is sharply lower in the first part of Monday trade. We were last off 3%, near the $98/ton level. Recent highs were capped near the $103/ton level. Mid August lows rested just under $92/ton.

  • At the end of last week, total iron ore inventories at China ports edged back higher, after drifting lower in the prior few weeks. This leaves us close to recent cycle highs from an inventory standpoint.
  • Renewed China housing concerns, amid weaker sales in August relative to July, is also a likely headwind. Property related stocks are off sharply today.
  • Data has been mixed on the PMI front, with the Caixin manufacturing outcome stronger than the official read from the weekend. The steel PMI rose in August to 50 from 48.6, but isn't pointing to a strong uptrend.
  • Onshore steel prices are also weaker today, futures for hot rolled coil off around 1%, for Rebar down 1.8%.
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