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Baht Slips After Second Straight Day Of Net Equity Outflows

THB

Spot USD/THB trades +0.025 at THB36.635, oscillating within yesterday's range. A clearance of Sep 2 high of THB36.845 would allow bulls to set their sights on Jul 21 cycle high of THB36.945. Conversely, bears need a dip under the 50-DMA (THB36.191) to get some initial reprieve.

  • The baht has been the second-worst performer in emerging Asia this week, with only the KRW posting deeper losses against the greenback. Heightened political uncertainty surrounding PM Prayuth's term-limit case may be adding to baht vulnerability, with the final ruling expected on Sep 30.
  • Offshore investors sold a net $33.4mn in Thai equities Wednesday, the second consecutive day of outflows. Recovery in foreign demand for Thai stocks that began in Jun has seemingly run its course, as suggested by data on daily equity flows, yet in the grand scheme of things the SET index has managed to keep pushing higher. Despite opening sharply lower Wednesday, the index clawed back the bulk of its initial losses by the end of the day.
  • BoT Asst Gov Siritida holds a media briefing today, while FinMin Arkhom will appear at an award presentation. Looking further afield, the central bank will provide its weekly update on foreign reserves this Friday.

Fig. 1: Thailand Stock Exchange Foreign Investors Net Flows vs. SET Index

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Spot USD/THB trades +0.025 at THB36.635, oscillating within yesterday's range. A clearance of Sep 2 high of THB36.845 would allow bulls to set their sights on Jul 21 cycle high of THB36.945. Conversely, bears need a dip under the 50-DMA (THB36.191) to get some initial reprieve.

  • The baht has been the second-worst performer in emerging Asia this week, with only the KRW posting deeper losses against the greenback. Heightened political uncertainty surrounding PM Prayuth's term-limit case may be adding to baht vulnerability, with the final ruling expected on Sep 30.
  • Offshore investors sold a net $33.4mn in Thai equities Wednesday, the second consecutive day of outflows. Recovery in foreign demand for Thai stocks that began in Jun has seemingly run its course, as suggested by data on daily equity flows, yet in the grand scheme of things the SET index has managed to keep pushing higher. Despite opening sharply lower Wednesday, the index clawed back the bulk of its initial losses by the end of the day.
  • BoT Asst Gov Siritida holds a media briefing today, while FinMin Arkhom will appear at an award presentation. Looking further afield, the central bank will provide its weekly update on foreign reserves this Friday.

Fig. 1: Thailand Stock Exchange Foreign Investors Net Flows vs. SET Index

Keep reading...Show less