Free Trial

Bailey asked on persistence and what restrictiveness means?

BOE
Q: Bailey asked if this is a one-and-done. And whether public sector pay deals have any impact on inflation persistence.
  • A1: Points to no language changes - says will go from meeting to meeting and it will be a judgment about resilience. He says "nothing has really changed in terms of the economic news but we have become more confident" in the path. So will go on making further judgements about resilience.
  • A2: Private sector pay tends to lead public sector pay. Also if you look at past behaviour on the increment to public sector pay, suggests an increment in inflation that is quite small second decimal places. Will have more info after the Budget.

Bailey asked what does restrictiveness mean?

  • A: Said look at in a number of ways: How is growth compared to the potential of the economy? Path of growth suggests we are still below potential and a small output gap will be opening up over next few years. Have talked about r* quite a lot in the past, not of the view should provide quantitive number on that, but policy does appear to be above the neutral rate and "there is a way to go still". Have to monitor very carefully.

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.