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Bank desk reactions to yesterday's Q3.....>

AUSTRALIA
AUSTRALIA: Bank desk reactions to yesterday's Q3 CPI release.
- ANZ: Data was exp. to confirm weak price pressures, but was below market exp.,
although broadly in line with ANZ's f'casts. Encouragingly, domestic market
services inflation accelerated in Q3, suggesting that these prices are
responding to the pick-up in unit labour cost growth.
- Barclays: Although growth remains supportive, we think the issues of: 1) low
wage growth; 2) subdued CPI; & 3) falling house prices continue to weigh on the
econ & maintain the disinflationary outlook. These 3 factors are likely to delay
policy normalisation for some time, even if employment & growth remain
relatively strong. Against this disinflationary backdrop, we think the RBA is
likely to look through the decline in unemployment. The RBA's continued cautious
outlook supports our view that the rate hiking cycle is likely to begin in H120.
- Westpac: Incorporating revisions, the six month annualised growth in core
inflation is only 1.5%yr, well below the bottom of the RBA band & the slowest
pace since Sep 16. With core inflation well below the bottom of the RBA's target
band we can find little to suggest any risk of a meaningful acceleration.
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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