Bank desk views ahead of today's NZ.....>

NEW ZEALAND: Bank desk views ahead of today's NZ Q1 GDP release:

- ANZ: GDP growth is exp. to register a soft 0.4% q/q in Q1. There is perhaps

some modest upside risk to our quarterly pick, but only at the margin. Momentum

in the econ continues to slow & it faces headwinds. That said, we don't exp the

cycle to completely roll over just yet.

- ASB: We exp Q1 2018 GDP grew 0.4%, with soft activity likely to be seen across

a number of industries. But a strong bounce-back is possible in Q2, which would

mean underlying growth is merely average rather than mediocre. Weak

post-election biz confidence threatens to derail the growth outlook.

- BNZ: We exp Q1 GDP expanded 0.5% q/q (2.7% y/y) as the expenditure measure

hints at disappointment. Transitory drags for Q1 still stick out & pick-up

mooted for Q2. In any case, CPI inflation is set to firm up.

- Westpac: We exp a 0.4% rise. This would mark a third consecutive quarter of

subdued growth in activity. We have long been highlighting the prospect of a

soft patch in growth over the first half of this year. In contrast, we think the

Reserve Bank and the Treasury have been too optimistic on near-term growth.