Bank desk views on today's NZ Q4 CPI....>

NEW ZEALAND: Bank desk views on today's NZ Q4 CPI print:

- ANZ: We exp. 0.0% Q/Q, 1.8% Y/Y. Tradable inflation is exp. to print -0.8%

Q/Q, while non-tradable inflation is exp. to post +0.4% Q/Q. We exp. that

measures of core inflation will track broadly sideways. CPI in line with our

exp. would add to the case we see building for a more dovish RBNZ in Feb.

- ASB: We exp. 0.0% Q/Q, 1.8% Y/Y. Seasonal falls in food prices and the sharp

reversal in petrol prices are weighing on inflation. With sharp moves in the

headline number, the RBNZ's sectoral factor model (an estimate of core

inflation) will be closely watched and could paint a different picture. 

- BNZ: Headline CPI is prone to undershoot recent RBNZ exp. And not just in Q4

figures, but running into calendar '19. However, as last week's QSBO

highlighted, the underlying drivers of inflation remain firmly in force. This

should have the Bank thinking twice before acting on its dovish signals.

- Westpac: We exp. a 0.1% Q/Q rise, 1.9% Y/Y. The recent plunge in fuel prices

has taken some of the edge off headline inflation, but we think that

domestically-generated inflation will be stronger than the RBNZ exp.