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INDONESIA: Bank Indonesia intervened in currency and bond markets overnight to
prevent further weakness in the IDR, Governor Agus Martowardojo mentioning in a
statement that the intervention was sizeable. USDIDR appears to have stabilized
after recent weakness at 13,900.
- BI's interventions since the start of the year have done little to help the
IDR, which is particularly susceptible to outflows amid U.S. rate hikes due to
the country's net international investment deficit and high degree of foreign
ownership of local bonds.
- USDIDR likely has more upside, with the next level of support coming at the
14736 high seen in September.
- The Indonesia 10-year bond is currently at 6.93% and higher yields seem likely
as BI may be forced to tighten monetary policy after keeping rates unchanged and
striking a neutral tone at its April 19 meeting.
- The main risk facing Indonesian bonds and the IDR comes from a rise in global
credit spreads, which have thus far remained anchored despite the U.S. Fed's
ongoing tightening campaign.