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Bank of America Expect Further 300Bps of Banxico Hikes in 2022

MEXICO
  • Some colour on a BofA note on Mexico/Banxico from Bloomberg article:
  • BofA Sees Mexico 2022 Inflation at 6%, up From 5%, on Ukraine (BBG)
  • Expect Banxico to hike 300bp in the rest of the year (five 50bp hikes and two 25bp hikes) to put the policy rate at 9% by end-2022, up from previous forecast of 8%. They expect no hikes in 2023.
  • Expects Banxico to continue 50bp hikes until inflation moves below 6% and is in a clear downward trend, which they now estimate will happen in 4Q 2022.
  • “The tradeoff between growth and inflation is worse now, but Banxico will prioritize inflation. The new governor has been clear she wants to control inflation. Plus hiking helps to keep the currency at bay, which is important for AMLO.”
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