Bankinter 1Q24 Results Due 18-Apr: Revenue Outlook To Be Key

Bankinter 1Q24 results are due 18-Apr, with the revenue outlook and asset quality to the fore. Mgmt are seen as too bullish on revenues for 2024 (on more bullish ECB projections) and loan losses surprised negatively at 4Q23 though non-performers were slightly better.

• 4Q23 results missed expectations on weak revenues and rising costs but credit quality (non-performers) appeared relatively solid against expectations. Mgmt’s revenue guidance is more positive than consensus has, largely as it discounts a single ECB rate cut, which the sell-side still sees as too bullish, we fear.
• Since results, the equity is up 20% (vs. SX7P +12.3%) but spreads are tighter YTD (average of -28bp but vs. -36bp for EuroIG financials) and have widened +10bp in the last week.
• Revenue estimates have been upgraded by c.3% for this year and next, since results, and EPS estimates are 4% higher. Revenues and profits are seen growing this year (as rate tailwinds subside slowly) but then the outlook for 2025 is negative across the board.
• These results will come down to sizing the revenue outlook and an update on credit quality – loan losses did surprise negatively at 4Q23, even though non-performers were better.

Results are due pre-market with a call at 0800, available at: https://www.bankinter.com/webcorporativa/en/home