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Banxico Minutes Scheduled At 1500GMT / 1000ET

MEXICO
  • The central bank will publish the minutes of its latest monetary policy decision in December, when the bank held its key interest rate at 11.25%. The MNI review of that meeting is here.
  • JPMorgan explain that the puzzling contrary stances of the November and December meeting likely reflect first, that Banxico will not necessarily adopt a back-to-back easing cycle and second, that the monetary policy stance is too tight. According to JPM, “probably the board is trying to deliver the right hawkish-dovish balance, but the fact that the December statement continued to underscore that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside suggests that the due date for the “on hold” stance could be a bit later.”
  • Goldman Sachs detail that they will be looking for three things in the minutes. First of all, any discussion around the conditions that would lead to rate cuts (i.e., any potential ceiling for the ex-ante real rate) and the approximate timing for the first cut. Secondly, a discussion about the implications for the near-term calibration of monetary policy of the enduring strength of the real business cycle, tight labour market backdrop, expansionary 2024 budget, and an output gap that moved deeper into positive territory in Q3. Thirdly, discussion about the near-term implications for domestic monetary policy of the recent FOMC dovish policy signals, weakening Dollar in global markets, and decline in Dollar yields.
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