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Barclays At High End Of Core CPI Consensus

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Barclays expect core CPI at 0.36% M/M, “as firm core services inflation is likely to be only partly offset by a more modest deflation in goods prices.”
  • They see supercore CPI ex health insurance at 0.50% M/M after 0.65% M/M in September, “amid modest disinflation expected in categories like recreation, ex-health insurance medical services and “other” services”.
  • “All told, this would take the 3mma to a strong 0.5%, moving further away from the 0.2-0.3% run-rate observed from June through August, and about 0.3pp higher than its pre-pandemic run rate.”
  • “We see more uncertainty around the October reading than usual, led by the OER category, where inflation increased an outsized 18bp in September – the largest monthly move in this direction since late 2003. […] Elsewhere, the new methodology for estimating health insurance CPI will be applied in October, and finally, there is the usual amount of uncertainty around the volatile categories such as airfares and lodging-away-from home that will likely be at play”.
  • “An outcome in line with our forecast would, in our view, align with our baseline expectation of one more 25bp hike early next year”.
  • Headline CPI is seen at 0.1% M/M amid a drag from energy prices.
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