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Barclays Expect Policy Rate to Reach 35% by Year-End

TURKEY
  • Barclays write in a note that they expect TRY to be allowed to depreciate as the Turkish authorities are focusing on closing the current account deficit. Predicting that the CBRT policy rate will limit the pressure on TRY to some extent, Barclays expect the policy rate to reach 35% by the end of the year and 40% in 2024.
  • Barclays also emphasise the upward risks for USDTRY forecasts if dollarization pressures develop again. They expect USDTRY to rise to 29 by the end of 2023, 32 in March 2024, 35 in June 2024, and 39 in September 2024.

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