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Barclays: Why 2023 Hike Could Be Seen Dovish; BofA: Watch The "Big 3" (2/3)

A few sell-side analysts' takes on the 2023 median dot question:
  • Barclays: No 2023 median dot hike. If the dots move higher, they are likely to lag any upward revision in inflation forecasts. Barclays would regard that as dovish, noting that of the 11 participants who projected inflation of <=2% by 2023 and 12 who projected no hikes / 5 who projected hikes: if most of those 11 now forecast higher inflation, a "significant portion" would still not forecast hikes, which would be perceived as dovish.
  • BofA: Median dot to show a 2023 hike. If the consensus is for a hike in 2023, "we can assume that Powell is in the hike camp", but "if it is a close call with only 10 hikes, it is likely the case that the Big Three [Powell, Clarida and Brainard] didn't shift."
  • Citi: Even probability that the median dot for 2023 will be either zero, one-half, or one full rate hike. 2 hike median possible but unlikely. More hawkish: if 4+ officials expect a 2022 liftoff, but this seems premature.
  • Credit Suisse: Median dot to show one hike in 2023, and "several" to show a forecast in line with market pricing for 2 or 3 hikes in 2023.

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