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Base Effects Drive Headline Inflation Marginally Lower

TURKEY
  • Consumer prices rose 38.21% y/y (Est: +38.85%) in June versus +39.59% in May, according to data from the Turkish Statistical Institute. The monthly figure rose 3.92% (Est: +4.30%) while core prices rose 47.33% y/y (Est: +47.60%) versus +46.62% prior.
  • The slight decline in the headline figure is largely due to base effects, though the sharp drop in the value of TRY (USDTRY has risen ~30% since the elections) will provide upward price pressure heading into H2. USD/TRY saw a muted response to the release given the close proximity with expectations; spot holds close to cycle highs printed in late June.
  • Producer price data was also on the docket. Turkey’s PPI rose 40.42% y/y in June versus +40.76% in May. The monthly figure rose 6.5% m/m compared to +0.65% prior.
  • Banks have increased interest rates on consumer loans, Ekonomi report. According to banking sector sources, the annual consumer loan interest rate reached as high as 60% at some banks, while lira deposit rates fell below 40%.
  • President Erdogan will travel to the UAE later this month, Treasury and Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said as per Hurriyet. Erdogan’s visit will probably take place after a NATO summit on July 11-12, Simsek told reporters after a cabinet meeting, adding that some investment agreements between the two countries could be signed, he said without providing further details.
  • The central bank will publish weekly portfolio capital flows data at 1230BST/1430 local time.
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