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BAX 2024 Inversion Builds Slightly

CANADA
  • GoCs have held 1-2bp underperformance to Tsys across the curve through the session, but BAX futures trade more closely in line and slightly outperform SOFR futures in 2H24 contracts.
  • Muted net changes for BAX futures, currently as much as -0.015 for the Mar’24 and +0.02 for the Dec’24, have kept the Sep-Dec’23 spread around +5bps but see a further widening in the Sep’23-Dec’24 to -97bps for close to its widest close since US CPI last week.
  • BOC-dated CORRA OIS holds steady with +9bps priced for the Sep BoC decision with clearly plenty of data still to come before then.
  • We suspect tomorrow’s US data could set the tone for tomorrow’s trading before a renewed domestic focus again Friday with retail sales.

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