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BAX Curve Least Inverted Since Sep’22

CANADA
  • BAX futures have only partly pared earlier lows, which see the front Sep’23 reluctant to break lower (BAU3 unch), building to -0.015 for Dec’23, -0.04 for Jun’24 and -0.06 for Dec’24.
  • The combination has pushed the BAU3/Z4 spread to -54.5bps, on track to close at its least inverted since Sep’22.
  • The disinversion has firmly followed developments in US rates, although the outright levels remain clearly different with SFRU3/Z4 trading at -112.5bps.
  • Near-term BOC-dated OIS meanwhile prices +10.5bps for the Sep 6 decision, building to a cumulative 24bp of hikes with year-end.

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