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BAX Inversion Continues To Unwind

CANADA
  • BAX futures have continued the steepening seen since Friday’s strong labour report, with the front BAU3 near unchanged (+0.005) but with a sell-off building through 2024 to Dec ’24 (-0.04).
  • It sees BAU3/Z4 at -51.5bps (-64bps on Thursday’s close) for its lowest level of inversion since -49bps on Aug 22 and before that Sep’22. It compares to -105bps for the SOFR equivalent.
  • BoC-dated CORRA OIS continues to imply a 9bp hike for next month’s decision although builds to a cumulative 13bp for December. The market is still undecided on the need for a further hike after the BoC shifted back to pausing last week whilst assessing incoming data.
  • There is potential for significant spillover from tomorrow’s US CPI print whilst waiting for the next major local event with Canadian CPI a week from now.

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