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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- BAX futures see small gains for near-term contracts but increasingly large rallies further into 2024, with contracts holding at or near session highs.
- The Jun’24 implied yield for instance is 9.5bps lower on the day for a cumulative -14bps since just before BoC hiked 25bps with a hawkish leaning statement. An equally large move before that on soft US CPI has meant the yield sits more than 25bp lower since Tuesday’s close. This builds to a 35bp decline for the Dec’24.
- The BAX Sep-Dec’23 spread is now flat again vs +6.5bp late Tuesday. Far more notably, the Sep’23-Dec’24 has widened to -98bps from -65bps, although still compares with -105bps seen after the BoC hiked in June, such was the trimming of inversion in the second half of June.
- Looking to the September decision, BoC-dated OIS suggests around 1/3 probability of a 25bp hike but there is plenty of data before then.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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