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BBVA View Statement as Marking a Deeper Debate

COLOMBIA
  • BBVA maintain their position of BanRep starting the easing cycle in December. Its magnitude will be conditioned on economic activity data, especially the publication of Q3 GDP, but also on the inflation data for the months of October and November with which the monetary authority will have before the December meeting.
  • BBVA believe a stronger statement is highlighted by the board considering that the high rates may be creating conditions for lower growth and eventually a possible problem of scarcity and as a consequence higher inflation.
  • For his part, the Governor, without clarifying his position on the vote, mentioned that the Board agrees on the desire to be able to lower interest rates, but that the Board mostly does not consider that it is the right time to start the cuts. In his response he outlined a series of structural and cyclical arguments that explain the current position of the Board.
  • The divergent views between Villar and Bonilla marks a deeper debate within the Board, seeming to have a component of greater disagreement (within respect for the differences in opinions). Additionally, explanations of the benefits of maintaining low and stable inflation within the statement are aimed at showing that the Issuer considers not only the current activity but also the capacity for future growth and especially the long-term well-being of the population.
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