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BCB Focus Survey Due At 1225BST

BRAZIL
  • A bullish theme in USDBRL remains intact, despite yesterday’s move lower, helped by the pullback for the dollar in sympathy with the move in US yields as well as the rally in iron ore prices. Attention is still on 5.0983, the Oct 20 ‘23 high, ahead of the 76.4% retracement point at 5.1218. On the downside, the 50-day EMA - at 4.9832 - marks the key support.
  • On the data front, the BCB will publish its weekly focus survey at 1225BST (0725ET). Last week, the 2024 GDP growth forecast was raised again to 1.89%, from 1.85%, while CPI forecasts were left unchanged. Earlier, FIPE CPI printed at +0.26% m/m in the week ended April 7, vs. +0.38% previously. No other data are due today, with attention turning to tomorrow’s IPCA inflation data for March, where analysts expect the annual rate to decline to 4.01% y/y, from 4.50%.
  • In other news, the government is set to propose to the Petrobras board a payout of 50% of its extraordinary dividends, according to an article in Valor. The article says that Haddad would agree with the partial distribution of dividends, as the current Petrobras board has indicated it is supportive of a tax transaction related to oil platform contracts.

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