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BCP Stake Sales: Full Takover Credit Positive But Low Probability

FINANCIALS

BCP (BCP PL) seemingly in play from both strategic shareholders. Full takeover, rather than simply stakes changing hands, would likely be credit positive but seems low probability at this stage.


  • Reuters is reporting that Fosun, which was reported last week to be offloading its stake in Ageas to BNP, is “open to selling” its (20%) stake in BCP. Caixabank and BBVA are already being talked about as potential buyers, both having operations across Iberia. Fosun is looking to offload assets right now to restructure its debt load.
  • Separately, Sonangol was reported last month (23-Feb) as under “pressure” from potential consolidators to sell its 19.5% stake in BCP. Sonangol did indicate it would only do this in consultation with the Angolan state (which owns the company).
  • Portuguese banking is relatively well consolidated and a recovery in the housing market in Portugal has put the banking industry in a better position. CGD (state-owned), BCP and Santander are the top three banks in Portugal, so unlikely Santander would be allowed to buy it but whether the government would want 2 of the top 3 owned by foreigners is tough to assess.
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