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BCRP Expected To Initiate Easing Cycle With 25BP Reference Rate Cut

PERU
  • The majority of surveyed analysts (8/12) are expecting the BCRP to cut the reference rate by 25bps on Thursday to 7.50%. A continued improvement in inflation dynamics amid disappointing economic activity should prompt the central bank committee to initiate a gradual cycle of monetary easing.
  • Since the prior meeting, Lima August CPI dipped to 5.58% Y/y and despite this reading being above the median surveyed estimate, the data confirmed a not insignificant improvement from 5.88% in July. The board’s preferred measure of inflation expectations, 12-month ahead, also continued to decline. Despite remaining above the central’s bank’s target range, the reading of 3.36% continues to edge closer to the upper bound at 3%, as shown below.
  • Finance Minister Alex Contreras has been keen to remark that Peru’s economic situation is indicating potential for a rebound despite experiencing a contraction in the initial half of this year. Economic activity in June registered above expectations, but remained in negative territory at -0.6% Y/y. With the June figure now published, it was confirmed that in the second quarter, the economy contracted by 0.6%, following a 0.43% decline in the first quarter. The depressed activity level for the economy confirms the prior assessment within the August statement that the majority of indicators remain in “pessimistic territory” and should bolster the decision to start gradually easing monetary policy.
  • Full preview with analyst views is here: https://roar-assets-auto.rbl.ms/files/55716/MNI%20Peru%20Central%20Bank%20Preview%20-%20September%202023.pdf
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