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BCRP Unchanged, Maintain Hawkish Sentiment

PERU
  • Overnight, Peru’s central bank board kept the reference rate unchanged at 7.75%, in line with expectations. While acknowledging the ‘significant’ fall for both headline and core inflation metrics, the board maintained their guidance that the “decision does not necessarily imply an end to the BCRP’s monetary tightening cycle.”
  • The board were slightly more focused on the inflation convergence timeline, expressing that they now see CPI “near the target range at the end of the year and approaching the range beginning next year”.
  • On a dovish note, the board said there were transitory inflation effects due to restrictions in the supply of some food items, which began to recede in June. However, conversely, the board highlighted that there are risks related to climatic factors, hinting at its concern with El Niño phenomenon.
  • Despite the slightly hawkish-to-expectations statement, analysts still appear confident that the board will be able to start cutting rates soon, with the September meeting appearing the most likely candidate at this juncture.
  • The link to the statement is here: https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/eng-docs/Monetary-Policy/Informative-Notes/2023/informative-note-july-2023.pdf
  • The BCRP Board’s next monetary policy session will take place on August 10.
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