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Bear Steepened on Friday; CPI, FOMC In Focus

US TSYS

TYH3 deals at 114-00 in line with levels seen late in the NY session on Friday.

  • Cash Tsys bear steepened into the weekend, finishing 4-12bp on Friday. The 2s10s inversion continued to ease from cycle extremes of -85.2 bps seen last week, finishing NY dealing at -75.9 bps.
  • Nov PPI printed above expectations, driving Tsys lower in NY hours. The MoM reading sat at +0.3% vs +0.2% exp. UofMich Sentiment was also on the wires printing 59.1 vs 57.0 exp, further aiding the offer (although the 1-Year inflation expectations component eased).
  • Cross-asset, U.S. equities fell with the S&P500 ~0.7% softer, and the DXY was little changed on Friday.
  • Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC meeting OIS pricing is stable with a 50 bps hike fully priced in (data OIS has 52 bps of tightening priced to be exact) and a terminal rate of 4.96%, peaking in May 2023.
  • The focus this week is on Tuesday's Nov CPI print, Wednesday's FOMC rate decision and Nov Retail Sales on Thursday.
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