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Bearish Consolidation Continues in CEEMEA Currencies

EM FX
  • CEEMEA currencies continue to weaken following strong US job beats on Friday; rising expectations that the Fed could soon start tapering its QE program could continue to support the USD in the short run.
  • ZAR (which we defined as the EM carry currency, along with MXN) has been the weakest performer in the past three days, down 2% against USD.
  • The second weakest performer is PLN. A 'quiet' NBP combined with strong USD keep pushing USDPLN higher; the pair is currently testing its 3.90 resistance, next key level to watch on the topside stands at 3.98 (March 31 high).
  • Third weakest performer is the RUB, down 1.2% against USD. RUB could also be sensitive to a potential correction in oil prices amid the recent fall in growth expectations in Asia due to the deterioration in Covid situation.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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