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Expiries for Oct21 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

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  • USD/ZAR trades -0.22% lower this morning, tracking early selling pressure in the USD post-FOMC minutes.
  • The cross continued to slide in yesterday's session, falling -1.09% to hold below key support at 14.80 to create a bearish engulfing candle on the daily chart just above the 50dma.
  • As expected, the fed alluded to a November taper of $120bn, but fell short of providing a rates lift-off forecast which swaps markets have fully priced in around September 2022.
  • Rumours of renewed ANC ructions ahead of local elections does not bode well for the party, which many analysts believe will suffer a decline in support but still manage to win the overall vote.
  • The resurgence of suspended ANC SG Magashule is an interesting dynamic as he has been quiet for some time, and will be monitored closely in the coming weeks.
  • On the international front, US PPI will be monitored for further signs of inflationary pressures being passed through producer channels amid sharply rising energy prices.
  • Momentum has made a notable shift lower in USD/ZAR after breaking 14.80, but will need to clear and close below the 50dma as the next major hurdle.
  • Intraday Sup1: 14.6978, Sup2: 14.6072, Res1: 14.8166, Res2: 14.9065