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Beige Book: Future Growth Outlook Remained Generally Weak

FED
  • The Beige Book doesn’t paint a particularly rosy picture for growth, noting that economic activity was on balanced unchanged since early July (5 Districts reporting slight to modest activity, 5 others reporting slight to modest softening).
  • Further, "The outlook for future economic growth remained generally weak, with contacts noting expectations for further softening of demand over the next six to twelve months"
  • There were also incrementally softer inflationary pressure implications from both prices direct and labor markets: "Price levels remained highly elevated, but nine Districts reported some degree of moderation in their rate of increase" and "Overall labor market conditions remained tight, although nearly all Districts highlighted some improvement in labor availability, particularly among manufacturing, construction, and financial services contacts".
  • Based on information collected on or before Aug 29, it lends anecdotal evidence somewhere between the very weak August PMI Services and stronger ISM Services seen most recently, although limited reaction in long-end Treasuries with the 10YY already -9bps on the day.
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