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Beige Book Sees Minor Dent In Otherwise Sharp Increase In Fed Rates

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have dipped on the Fed’s Beige Book, but still see very strong increases on the day after a sizeable beat for retail sales built on prior upward pressure.
  • March implied rates have now dipped 1bp from earlier brief highs of 5.20% (and currently imply a cumulative 14bp of cuts vs 19bp pre-Waller).
  • Dec implied rates are also 1bp lower than highs of 3.95% seen just before the Beige Book (for 139bps of cuts in 2024, more than one 25bp cut less than was priced before Waller yesterday).
  • The Beige Book noted little or no change in economic activity since, with nearly all districts citing one or more signs of a cooling labor market and some increased consumer sensitivity to prices.

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