Belarus' Lukashenko Promises Referendum On New Constitution Next Year

Guy Elster at Walla News tweets: "President Lukashenko says country will hold referendum on constitution early next year."

• Lukashenko made the promise at an assembly of party apparatchiks, with the claim likely intended to signal his gov't is listening to the opposition after months of protest following elections in Aug 2020 that many claimed were fraudulent.
• Given the waning momentum among the protest movement, it is unlikely that a new constitution would result in any notable reforms to Belarus's governance.
• More importantly for regional geopolitics, it seems likely that Lukashenko will remain in office, at least in the short-to-medium term. This in turn removes another potential source of confrontation between Russia and the EU. The former (somewhat reluctantly) supports Lukashenko, with his country acting as a buffer between the EU and Russia's western border. The latter came out in vocal support of the protesters and opposition politicians during the crisis given their more pro-EU leanings.