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  • Berenberg has shifted forward its expectation of the first BoE hike to February 2022 (from May) with a second 25bp hike in May (instead of August).
  • However Berenberg also notes that "the situation is fluid and the risks are skewed towards a December hike."
  • Berenberg also states that: "Unless inflation expectations become so wildly unanchored between now and December that the BoE must crack the whip on inflation, a December hike could look like an overreaction or, worse, a panicked response... Expect the BoE to clarify its guidance in the final MPR of the year on 4 November."