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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Political betting markets show the 19 Nov presidential run-off on a knife-edge as opinion polling narrows ahead of the election. Electionbettingodds.com, which compiles betting market data from Smarkets, Predictit, Polymarket and Betfair gives Economy Minister Sergio Massa a 51.0% implied probability of winning the run-off, compared to 49.0% of libertarian firebrand Javier Milei.
- The shift in betting markets has come as opinion polls have shown an increasingly tight race. In the immediate aftermath of the 22 Oct first round, polls showed Massa leading Milei by 8-12%. However, in late Oct and early Nov, following third-place conservative candidate Patricia Bullrich's endorsement of Milei, polls have narrowed.
- Indeed, the latest second-round poll from Brazil-based Atlas Intel (the only pollster to correctly show Massa leading in the first-round) has Milei leading Massa 48.5% to 44.7%.
- The final debate of the election season, and the sole head-to-head between Milei and Massa, takes place on Sunday 12 Nov at 2100 local time (1900ET, 0000GMT, 1100AEDT).
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Winning Presidential Election, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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