Biden And Harris To Appear Together At Event In Crucial Pennsylvania

16:45 ET 21:45 BST: President Biden and Vice President Harris will appear on stage together for the first time since Harris accepted the Democratic nomination on August 22. Livestream

• The union-focused event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania shows that Democrat strategists are concerned that Harris' strong national polling bounce hasn't translated into a lead in Pennsylvania. Pollster Nate Silver's polling average shows Harris ahead by 1.3% in the state, a slight drop from last week and tighter than the other two Blue Wall swing states, Michigan (D+1.9) and Wisconsin (D+3.3).
• Silver notes that PA has a 35% chance of being the most decisive state in November, considerably higher than second-placed Michigan with 15%. Silver's model estimates that Harris has a 91% implied probability of winning the election if she wins Pennsylvania. Trump has a stronger 94% implied probability of winning if he takes PA.
• Harris has sought to bolster support in the state with a hawkish pivot on fracking, but she likely has a lower ceiling with White working-class voters than Biden, who dedicated much of his first term to projecting solidarity with organised labour and has working-class family roots in Scranton, Pennsylvania.
• MNI's Political Risk team noted in Friday's edition of the US Elections Weekly that Harris' struggles in Pennsylvania may raise questions about choosing Tim Walz as her VP over popular Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (D-PA). At the time, that was considered a safe but not strategically optimum decision by some analysts.

Figure 1: Presidential Election Forecast, % Implied Probability of Winning