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$-Bloc Terminal Rate Expectations Nudge Towards Fully Pricing Another 25bp Hike

STIR

Market expectations for the terminal interest rates within the $-bloc have recently shifted, with a strong leaning towards fully pricing in another 25bp rate hike ahead of the FOMC decision later today. This shift has been bolstered by consecutive months of Canadian inflation data surpassing expectations and a simultaneous rise in the oil price. Terminal rate expectations and the cumulative tightening currently stand at:

  • 5.44%, +11bps (FOMC);
  • 5.26%, +26bps (BoC);
  • 4.31%, +24bps (RBA); and
  • 5.69%, +19bps (RBNZ).

Figure 1: $-Bloc STIR: Terminal Rate Expectations & June’24 Pricing



Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg

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