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BMO: Core CPI Sticky But Alternate Cores Provide Some Offsetting Good News

CANADA
  • “The better-than-expected headline result is somewhat encouraging as it is a step in the right direction bringing down inflation expectations.”
  • “Core inflation metrics weren't quite as encouraging”. On a 3-month annualized basis, the BoC's favoured measures, Median and Trim, were steady at 3.6%/actually accelerated to 4%.
  • The other core measures showed some slowing though. "Canada's old core, CPIX, slowed half a point to 3.2% Y/Y, while the 3-month AR slipped to 2.7%. And, CPI ex. food and energy also slowed half a point to 3.5% Y/Y, with the 3-month rate falling to 2.5%. It's worth noting that even if the Trim and Median rise 0.3% m/m in July, the 3-month AR will fall into the low-3s, so there's likely some good news coming next month.”
  • Key Takeaway: The June CPI report had a little something for everyone, with the headline rate slowing more than expected, but the BoC's core metrics remaining sticky. However, the improvement in the old core (CPIX) and ex. food & energy provides a bit of offsetting good news.
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