BNZ note that "it's tempting to view....>

NEW ZEALAND: BNZ note that "it's tempting to view February's 8.4% drop in job

advertising as clear evidence of COVID-19 virus fears and uncertainties.

However, there are reasons to believe it's too early for such a conclusion (with

Mar data arguably the first real test). Feb's advertising was always going to

struggle to hold up, after it posted such a big lift in January (+7.1%). Feb's

drop has, so far at least, mainly flattened the trend, after it was looking

strong in Jan. The other reason Feb's drop is probably too early to be proof of

virus impacts is that it was not particularly widespread. Nor was it obvious in

all the areas most prone. Yes, there was some softness coming through

Hospitality & Tourism. However, it was mild in comparison to the fall we've seen

in tourist arrivals or anecdote from eateries. Advertising for Education &

Training positions, meanwhile, was relatively robust, when there have clearly

been troubles in foreign students getting to NZ. Neither was there a common

weakness in the regional detail. This is not to deny the coronavirus will impact

on job ads, potentially quite noticeably. But we would argue the Mar figures

will be the first proper test of this, rather than today's figures for Feb."